Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Business confidence rising in 2009, but recession continues

Restored business confidence in December after the company received
support from the federal government, the fiscal stimulus package of the
study.


But confidence is still at a level last seen during the economic
recession of the early 1990's, and many companies expect a recession in
2009.


NAB monthly business survey showed that a significant reduction in
interest and 10.4 billion U.S. dollars package of incentives, retail
and wholesale markets with an elevator.


The survey showed confidence rose to 10 points less than 20
percentage points in December. The reading below zero indicates that
optimists than pessimists.


"Confidence in the average of 10 points in December - although the
level of minus 20 was slightly better than at the bottom of the
economic downturn of 1990,''said NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.


"As a consequence, led by big jumps in wholesale and retail trade
(up to 35 and 26, respectively), in response to government
initiatives.''


The study November reading was the lowest level since late 1992,
when the Australian economy has begun to recover from the recent
economic downturn.


NAB has reduced its forecast for GDP growth that the Australian
economy to shrink by 0.5 percent in 2009, but an increase of 1 percent
in 2010.


Mr. Oster said NAB forecasts meant difficult times for the future
of the Australian economy, with the rapid recovery in each store.


"The forecast assumes a relatively mild recession - especially in
relation to a decrease of 2 percent growth in major industrialized
countries, said Oster''pan.


"On a quarterly basis, we see no significant change began in 2010.''



NAB expects the Reserve Bank's cash rate of 4.25 percent decline to 2.50 percent.



Mr. Oster said the RBA may reduce the cash rate by 75 basis points
after the decision on February 3, followed by another 50 points for the
rest of the sea.


In the third quarter of 2009, the Central Bank is to reduce the
cash rate by another 50 basis points to 2.50 percent, the deterioration
in the labor market was forced to hand the RBA said.

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