Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Will Economic recession last 2009 - An analysis

The global financial and economic crisis continues to worsen. A few
weeks ago, the giant Citibank was bailed out several hundred million
dollars in cash and guarantees the U.S. government ( "Citi never
sleeps", but apparently managed to sleep out of some of the important
decisions in the past year).


Last week, America in November, reported a loss of jobs to more
than 530,000, the highest single month since 1974, taking the U. S. The
unemployment rate up to 6.7 percent, the largest in the last 15 years.


EU, euro zone, Japan and Britain are now officially in recession,
in the sense that they had two consecutive quarters of negative
economic growth. Some analysts predict that the pace of decline in the
U.S. economy in the last quarter of 2008 may be surprised at an annual
rate of 4-5 percent.


A similar pessimism pervades the other two largest economies in
the world, Europe and Japan There is considerable uncertainty about the
depth and duration of the current global recession. However, the
majority view of experts is now an important opportunity this will be
the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.


A serious financial crisis and the huge collateral damage to the
real sector of the economy of shame optimistic last year. Often,
experts argued that the "worst of the financial crisis is behind us,"
only dead in bushes next big mortgage refusal or withdrawal of credit.


Equally remarkable, and much worse in the impact was the speed
with which the accumulation of financial crisis Throttled to real
economic activity, since the summer of 2008. Rapid onset of recession
in the industrial sector (advanced) countries has exceeded the forecast
ability of many institutions, including the IMF.


More recently, in July this year, the IMF predicts that global
economic growth, 3.9 percent in 2009, with developed economies to 1.4
percent in developing countries by 6.7 percent. In early November
(after only four months), these forecasts have been reduced by 2.2
percent, minus 0.3 percent and 5.1 percent respectively.


                                             World Fusion: complete coverage

Their forecasts for economic growth in the U. S. In 2009, the Fund
spent more than 0.8 percent in July, at least 0.7 percent in November!
And it is safe to bet that the IMF has undertaken a series of new
forecasts for 2009 today, all these numbers would be even worse.


None of the recent "release" from a global perspective, in 2009,
provided they do not UNCTAD. Like the IMF, UNCTAD, the expected global
growth of just over 2 percent in pesos in 2009 and the PPP, only 1
percent in the exchange market. The second number means that the
overall growth in 2009, is expected to be only a quarter of people who
have the pace in 2006 and 2007

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